2022 – Page 2 – Ottawa Real Estate Board

March Resales Indicate Strong Spring Market

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,011 residential properties in March through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 2,274 in March 2021, a decrease of 12 per cent. March’s sales included 1,493 in the residential-property class, down 12 per cent from a year ago, and 518 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 10 per cent from March 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in March is 1,792.

“Although the number of sales in March decreased from last year at this time, it was still a robust and busy start to the spring season. Transactions increased 42% over February (590 units) and were 12% higher than the 5-year average. Last March was unseasonably warm in comparison, and the lion-like weather that pervaded most of this March may have played a role. More likely, the lifting of some restrictions and opportunity for unfettered travel during the spring break had peoples’ attention turning towards other activities during the month,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Penny Torontow.

“March tends to be the early indicator of the spring resale market pace, so we anticipate April’s numbers will be a better indication of just how the spring market will perform, which tends to be the peak time of year for resales,” she adds.

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in March was $479,405, an increase of 10 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $853,615, increasing 13 per cent from a year ago. With year-to-date average sale prices at $831,122 for residential and $467,915 for condominiums, these values represent a 14 per cent and 13 percent increase over 2021, respectively.*

“Average prices continue on their upward trend, albeit only increasing 2-3% over February’s figures, the year over year percentage increases of 13-14% validate that the housing supply shortage will continue to put strong upward pressure on prices until that is remedied.”

“Last month saw 2,632 new listings enter the MLS® System, and although 6% lower than March 2021, this is still 4% (or 100 units) above the 5-year average. Residential-class property inventory is approximately 10.5% higher than last year at this time, with condominium-class inventory down 12%. Overall, we are just slightly over (.6%) a half month’s supply of inventory and require at least four months of inventory to be considered within a balanced market.”

“It is encouraging to see new inventory entering the resale market. However, these properties are being quickly absorbed due to the unrelenting high demand, and more listings are crucial to meeting this need,” Torontow advises.

“We appreciate the provincial government has introduced the first phase of its More Homes For Everyone Act to tackle the housing shortage by implementing measures, including working with municipalities to get homes built faster and increasing the Non-Resident Speculation Tax. This is a good start, and we are hopeful that with the application of these and further measures, Ottawa’s many potential home buyers waiting on the sidelines will finally be able to get a foothold in our local market.”

In addition to residential sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 1,291 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 1,079 by March 2021.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

Has Spring Sprung Early in Ottawa’s Resale Market?

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,421 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,385 in February 2021, an increase of 3 per cent. February’s sales included 1,095 in the residential-property class, up 7 per cent from a year ago, and 326 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 10 per cent from February 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in February is 1,184.

“Although February’s resales were only 3% higher than last year at this time, we saw a 52% increase in the number of transactions compared to January’s figures (936). While a month-to-month increase is typical for this time of year, the gradation of this increase is higher than previous years, which could be an indication that our spring market may ramp up earlier this year,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Penny Torontow.

“Whether this has to do with the easing of government pandemic restrictions and the opening up of the economy or perhaps due to apprehension of the (then) upcoming interest rate increase, which is now in effect, we can’t entirely be sure,” she adds. “We are watching intently to see how the 2022 spring market will play out considering not only the higher interest rates and inflation but also other macro factors in our global environment that could affect our local economy.”

“Undoubtedly, the interest rate increase along with the higher rate of inflation will weaken potential Buyers’ purchasing power. And even though average price growths are not as acute as they were in the past two years, we are still seeing significant increases that are without question a result of the unrelenting high demand and current housing stock scarcity.”

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in February was $466,682, an increase of 15 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $837,517, increasing 17 per cent from a year ago. With year-to-date average sale prices at $812,813 for residential and $458,107 for condominiums, these values represent a 16 per cent increase over February 2021 for both property classes. *

“The number of new listings in February (1,762) offers a slight glimmer of hope for prospective Buyers. At 4% higher than the five-year average and 12% higher than February 2021, it resulted in an almost 10% increase in residential-class property inventory compared to last year at this time. Condominium supply, however, is down 20%. Overall, we are now at a 0.7 month’s supply of inventory which means that most listings that enter the market are going to be snapped up very quickly, as evidenced by the continuous decline in Days on Market (DOM). We certainly hope this trend of increased new listings will continue to supplement the housing stock going forward,” Torontow acknowledges.

“Ottawa is a beautiful city with a healthy, stable economy and is a utopic place to work, live and play. It attracts Canadians from other cities and people from all over the world. But it is deeply entrenched in a Seller’s Market. This means homebuyers need to have all their ducks in a row and are prepared to move expeditiously. A REALTOR® will have the knowledge to ensure you are making your best offer at the optimal time. Sellers also need the experience and resources a REALTOR® brings to ensure they are strategically positioning their homes given the conditions of their neighbourhood and property type. Don’t gamble with what is likely your biggest asset – contact a professional REALTOR® today!”

In addition to residential sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 800 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 674 by February 2021.

Frigid January Temperatures didn’t Cool Resale Market

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 936 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 963 in January 2021, a decrease of 3 per cent. January’s sales included 661 in the residential-property class, down 2 per cent from a year ago, and 275 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 5 per cent from January 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 840.

“January’s sales, almost identical to 2021’s, were very strong for a traditionally slower month, especially given the frigid temperatures and increased government Covid-19 restrictions we experienced,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Penny Torontow. “This increased activity compared to previous years is not solely a pandemic phenomenon. Yes, the pandemic has accelerated market activity in some ways, but pent-up Buyer demand due to the housing supply shortage has been an ongoing fundamental issue for the Ottawa resale market for well over 5 years now – and the price increases will continue to reflect that until the housing stock grows.”

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in January was $447,943, an increase of 18 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $771,739, increasing 14 per cent from a year ago.*

“Average prices continue to rise steadily with the lack of inventory pushing prices to levels previously unseen. We only need to observe the number of homes now selling over $1M for a clear demonstration. In 2020, they represented 3% of residential sales, in 2021, they held 9% of the market’s resales, and now in 2022, that number reflects close to 14% of detached home sales.”

“Meanwhile, the residential-class properties selling within the $650-$900K range represent 47% of all of January’s residential unit sales. In 2021, it was 33%. But we must keep in mind, average prices statistics amalgamate data from the entire city, so while in some areas the increases would be less, other pockets of Ottawa may see more,” advises Torontow.

“The condo market is also flourishing both in number of sales and prices. Possibly due to the fact that residential units may be out of reach for some Buyers, they are finding themselves more open to this option and are actually able to find a condominium-class property within their budget.”

“Bad weather, pandemic lockdowns, it doesn’t matter – Ottawa remains a fast-moving, active, and robust market. So, if you are thinking of selling your property, there has never been a better time. Contact a REALTOR® who can explain the various factors that will help you get the best price for your home today.”

In addition to residential sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 410 properties in January 2022 compared to 333 in 2021.

2021 Resale Market Normalizes and Breaks Records

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 862 residential properties in December through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 997 in December 2020, a decrease of 14 per cent. December’s sales included 601 in the residential-property class, down 15 per cent from a year ago, and 261 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 10 per cent from December 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in December is 809.

“December’s resale market performed as it typically does with a marked decrease in sales from November as families turned their attention towards the holiday break. Although slightly above the five-year average, the number of properties exchanging hands was lower than the year before due to the atypical market we experienced in 2020 when peak market activity shifted to later in the year because of the initial spring pandemic lockdown,” states Debra Wright Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2021 President. “However, while the market normalized in the latter part of the year, looking at the year-end figures, 2021 was still a record-breaking year,” she adds.

The total number of residential and condo units sold throughout 2021 was 20,302, compared with 18,953 in 2020, increasing 7 per cent. Meanwhile, total sales volume in 2021 was approximately $13.1B compared to $10B in 2020.

“This significant increase in sales volume reflects the price acceleration that we have seen over the last year and correlates with average sale price increases for the city,” Wright elaborates.

“As we have reiterated for the past few years, Ottawa’s housing inventory challenges have been and will continue to place an upward pressure on prices. Reviewing the year-end figures for 2021, the average sale price year to date was $719,605 for residential-class properties and $419,683 for condominium units. These values represent a 24 per cent and 16 percent increase over 2020, respectively.”

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in December was $399,125, an increase of 12 per cent from 2020, and the average sale price for a residential-class property was $709,980, increasing 18 per cent from a year ago.*

“Six hundred new listings entered the housing stock in December, which represents a 58% decrease from November and down 15% from the 5-year average. At less than one month’s supply of units in both the residential and condominium property classes, we are firmly entrenched in a strong Seller’s market and will continue to be in this state until our inventory increases to a 3-4 month’s supply for a balanced market to be achieved,” cautions Wright.

When asked for a forecast, Ottawa Real Estate Board’s new 2022 President Penny Torontow suggests, “January through March are usually slower months. With the macro factors that are currently at play in the resale market, it is difficult to predict what the effects will be going forward. We are entering yet another pandemic wave, Buyers are fatigued, parents are focusing on remote learning, interest rate hikes are looming – I don’t expect we will see the first quarter increases as we did in 2021.”

“We are unlikely to see the true outcome of these macro factors until the spring. Presumably, we will see more of the same with the market performing as well as it can with the current housing stock. Unfortunately for homebuyers, it will sustain itself as a Seller’s market for quite some time until our inventory issues are remedied. Whether you are buying or selling a home right now, the experience and knowledge of a REALTOR® is essential in this current challenging market,” Torontow concludes.

OREB Members also assisted clients with renting 4,813 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 3,364 in 2020.