2021 – Page 2 – Ottawa Real Estate Board

Residential Resale Market: A Tale of Two May Lockdowns

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,296 residential properties in May through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,342 in May 2020, an increase of 71 per cent. May’s sales included 1,779 in the residential-property class, up 67 per cent from a year ago, and 517 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 85 per cent from May 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in May is 2,123.

“Although Ontario was in a lockdown in both May 2020 and May 2021, the impact they had on Ottawa’s resale market was quite different – with this year’s number of transactions being well over the five-year average. Undoubtedly, enhanced safety measures and vaccine adoption rates have enabled potential Buyers and Sellers to feel more protected and comfortable in their home buying and selling process,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President, Debra Wright.

“Additionally, twice the number of new listings entered the market in May 2021, compared to last year at this time, with 2,386 residential properties and 727 condos added to inventory. This is approximately 50 units more than the five-year average for new listings,” she adds.

May’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $424,843, an increase of 24 per cent from last year, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $741,206, an increase of 35 per cent from a year ago.With year-to-date average sale prices at $736,241 for residential and $420,074 for condominiums, these values represent a 35 per cent and 21 percent increase over 2020, respectively.*

“With the number of condominium sales transactions having increased by 85% in May of 2021, over May of 2020, coupled with the 21% price increase in the same periods, it appears that the condo market has recovered from the declines experienced early in the pandemic.”

“For residential-class properties, price movement is still well above 2020, with 46% selling over $700K compared to 16% of properties last year at this time – these percentages are reflected in the sales data for both May and year-to-date. We observe that month-over-month average price increases for April and May are not as high as the jumps in value in the first quarter of 2021. While it is still too early to predict, this may be a sign that the rapid price acceleration we have been experiencing is easing in the market.”

“As we come out of this lockdown, we will closely monitor other market factors including the effects of the increased stress test measures combined with the average five-year fixed mortgage rates climbing back over two per cent since the beginning of 2021, and whether pent-up supply will decrease our supply shortage and eventually bring Ottawa’s real estate market to a more balanced state,” Wright concludes.

OREB Members also assisted clients with renting 1,837 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 1,207 at this time last year.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

April’s Resale Market Starts Strong and Sputters

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,402 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 911 in April 2020, an increase of 164 per cent. April’s sales included 1,859 in the residential-property class, up 166 per cent from a year ago, and 543 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 155 per cent from April 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in April is 1,830.

“As the typical spring market ramped up, April was poised to be the strongest on record with over 3,200 new listings of properties for sale. Most of these properties entered the market before the province’s stricter lockdown order was announced midway through the month. At that point, the trajectory sputtered, and while it continued to be active, it followed a noticeable decline as Sellers responded to the government’s resolution to reduce the spread of Covid-19,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Debra Wright.

“Nevertheless, the number of transactions managed to surpass unit sales recorded in previous Aprils, and we presume the figures would have been even higher in different circumstances,” she adds.

“As I had cautioned last month, the percentage increases over 2020 figures are vastly skewed due to the first State of Emergency last spring, which had initially slowed down the real estate market. Thus, the 155 to 166 percent increases in unit sales are simply not valid results. We recorded 2,026 sales in April 2019 and 2,024 in April 2018. These figures provide a more reasonable comparison, which is a 19% increase in overall sales compared to those pre-pandemic years.”

April’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $427,145, an increase of 30 per cent from last year, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $743,204, an increase of 42 per cent from a year ago.With year-to-date average sale prices at $734,682 for residential and $418,792 for condominiums, these values represent a 35 per cent and 20 percent increase over 2020, respectively.*

“These accelerated price increases boil down to a lack of supply and will continue to be a challenge for Buyers until more inventory becomes available – it’s fundamental supply and demand economics. Certainly, April’s substantial increase in new listings, 19% higher than the five-year listing average and over 400 units more than the previous month, gives us cautious optimism. When the Stay-at-Home order concludes, we hope that pent-up supply will bring some much-needed housing stock to the resale market,” suggests Wright.

“However, there are many factors at play which make it difficult to forecast the path of Ottawa’s real estate market: interest rate modifications, the skyrocketing cost of building materials, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) proposal to increase the mortgage stress test, changing consumer perspectives with some Buyers opting to move to outlying communities and Quebec, etc.”

“On the one hand, record low interest rates, increased household savings, a strengthening economy, and a continued focus on living space during the pandemic are all factors that bolster demand, while steady price growth is encouraging more Sellers to list their home. On the other hand, some people are truly struggling and small businesses are closing their doors. It’s complicated, it’s out of balance, and the course of our local market is not entirely predictable at this time,” Wright concludes.

OREB Members also assisted clients with renting 1,458 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 947 at this time last year.

* The Board cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price and conditions will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

March Resales Go Out Like a Lion

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,285 residential properties in March through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,514 in March 2020, an increase of 51 per cent. March’s sales included 1,705 in the residential-property class, up 47 per cent from a year ago, and 580 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 65 per cent from March 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in March is 1,688.

“A few factors contributed to the high number of resales in March,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Debra Wright. “Typically, real estate is heavily influenced by the weather, and we had remarkable and unseasonably warm temperatures last month, which facilitated Buyers’ ability to view and purchase homes.”

“Also, there was a significant uptick in the number of new listings that came onto the market. This total (2,798) was higher than the 5-year listing average, which hadn’t happened since July 2020, when the first lockdown ended. Ongoing pent-up Buyer demand meant that most of the properties that came on the market in March were quickly acquired.”

“Meanwhile, the 51% increase in transactions over last year can be attributed to the State of Emergency, which commenced mid-March 2020 and impacted overall sales that month. Measuring against a drastically reduced comparable made this year’s figure jump,” Wright points out.

“Although the percentage of sales comparison may be somewhat skewed, multiple offers scenarios are undoubtedly escalating property values. Statistics show that in March 2021, almost 80% of the resales in the Ottawa area sold for more than the asking price compared to 60% at this time last year. However, this is not the case in every instance and the balance sold with 6% selling at the list price and the other 14% selling for less than the list price.”

March’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $437,041, an increase of 18 per cent from last year, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $758,802, an increase of 35 per cent from a year ago.With year-to-date average sale prices at $729,897 for residential and $415,054 for condominiums, these values represent a 32 per cent and 17 percent increase over 2020, respectively.*

“These accelerated price growths are purely a result of long-term inventory shortage. I don’t believe that Ottawa’s market is by any means out of control but rather is coming into its own. However, until there is action at all three levels of government to resolve our supply challenges, our housing prices are not going to stabilize. And this phenomenon is not occurring in our market alone; housing stock scarcity is a nation-wide issue.”

“We have already seen an upturn in new listings coming onto the market, and we are hopeful this trend will continue. In fact, there may be some pent-up supply as Sellers have held back during the pandemic even though the market has been more active than expected throughout.”

“Sellers will benefit from the advice of a REALTOR® who can ensure they are marketing and pricing their properties competitively and strategically. At the same time, Buyers continue to be challenged with a shortage of offerings and need to be equally strategic with the guidance of their REALTOR®,” Wright concludes.

OREB Members also assisted clients with renting 1,079 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 746 at this time last year.

February Resales Snapped up Quickly

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,390 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,134 in February 2020, an increase of 23 per cent. February’s sales included 1,028 in the residential-property class, up 24 per cent from a year ago, and 362 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 19 per cent from February 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in February is 1,101.

“Resale properties are virtually flying off the shelves,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Debra Wright. “Even though our inventory is significantly lower than 2020 – a combined 46% decrease in housing stock for residential and condos – we witnessed a record number of sales in February 2021. How is that possible? Simply put, properties that come onto the market are selling very quickly.”

“With less than a month’s supply in both categories, residential homes, in particular, are experiencing the quickest turnarounds. This is evidenced in the sharp decline of Days on Market (DOM) from 30 days in February 2020 to 14 days last month. Interestingly, DOM for the condo market has gone up slightly from 19 to 22 days, likely due to the fact that the condo market was thriving and moving very quickly prior to the pandemic spread in Canada. We saw Buyer desire for more house space dampen that market temporarily; however, it is clear the condo market has stabilized and is starting to rebound with a 19% increase in transactions compared to last year at this time.”

February’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $407,671, an increase of 17 per cent from last year, while the average sale price of a residential-class property was $717,914, an increase of 27 per cent from a year ago.With year-to-date average sale prices at $701,778 for residential and $395,496 for condominiums, these values represent a 29 per cent and 15 percent increase over 2020, respectively.*

“With supply constraints continuing to place upward pressure on pricing, there is no doubt that this economic fundamental is driving the price increases. This is also reflected in February’s total sales volume for residential and condos, which combined was at $885,592,105, 54% higher than the same month in 2020. There is no denying that scarcity is leading to a more rapid price acceleration. This scarcity combined with Buyers’ willingness to pay and compete in this market will continue to drive up the sales prices,” Wright asserts.

“The upcoming spring market will bring more listings and increased inventory; however, the question is whether it will be enough to meet demand. Having a sound strategy, whether you are buying or selling, is the key to success. In this complex and fast-paced market, it is essential to utilize the skills and experience of a REALTOR® with negotiation skills and the market knowledge to act quickly on your behalf.”

“Did you know they also help tenants locate rental accommodations in addition to assisting landlords in finding tenants? Ottawa’s vacancy rates have soared due to the lack of immigration, visiting student populations, decline in Airbnb, etc. There are many good quality rentals out there, and a REALTOR® can help you find one whether you are selling and prefer to rent or searching for a different location,” Wright concludes.

OREB Members assisted clients with renting 674 properties since the beginning of the year compared to 498 at this time last year.

Pent-up Buyer Demand Drives January’s Resale Market

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 964 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 778 in January 2020, an increase of 24 per cent. January’s sales included 674 in the residential-property class, up 21 per cent from a year ago, and 290 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 31 per cent from January 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 786.

“Pent-up Buyer demand fueled the exceptional number of sales that took place in January even as the mid-month lockdown further restricted supply. Earlier in the month, listing activity increased, likely driven by those Sellers waiting until after the holiday season to put their properties on the market. However, once the Stay-at-Home Order was announced, Sellers pulled back (rightfully so) and the number of properties entering the market declined,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Debra Wright.

“Even though inventory is up from last month, it is still down substantially from last year at this time with 43% fewer properties on the market. This inventory shortage coupled with strong demand triggered a brisk pace to the market. We would have certainly seen higher sales numbers if there were more properties available because the demand is definitely there.”

January’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $380,336, an increase of 13 per cent from last year, while the average sale price of a residential-class property was $677,197, an increase of 31 per cent from a year ago. Compared to December, the average price for residential-class properties has increased by 12 per cent, and the average price for condominium-class units is 7 per cent higher.*

“I would like to caution those looking at the increase in average prices this month and believing that property values are accelerating at an extreme pace. In January, there was considerable movement in the upper end of the market, which caused a bit of an anomalous outcome in average price percentages. For example, there were 63 sales in the $1M+ price range, while last year at this time, there were only 16 transactions. Sustained price movements are better reflected during the mid to latter part of the year, where trends begin to emerge, and comparisons can be drawn,” advises Wright.

“This leads me into my next point – market activity has curtailed, there is no question about that, with January resale numbers lower than what we saw in December. But the effects of this second lockdown will not be entirely measurable until the coming months, dependent on when the mandated Stay-at-Home Order is retracted. If the lockdown is extended, that could affect the market in the longer term; however, as we saw last year, the market was resilient throughout and is being driven by the needs of Buyers and Sellers,” Wright concludes.

In addition to residential sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 333 properties in January 2021 compared with 243 in January 2020.

Ottawa’s Resale Market Thrives Despite Pandemic

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 1,002 residential properties in December through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 757 in December 2019, an increase of 32.4 per cent. December’s sales included 710 in the residential property class, up 33.7 per cent from a year ago, and 292 in the condominium property class, an increase of 29.2 per cent from December 2019. The five-year average for total residential unit sales in December is 779.

“Our market performance in December capped off a year for resales that clearly shows a market that continued to thrive even through the challenges of 2020. December sales brought our year-to-date numbers at year-end to within 2% of 2019. There was a slight slowdown typical of December around the holiday season; however, the market continued its overall momentum and remained more active than usual,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2021 President Debra Wright.

“At the start of the pandemic, we didn’t know what to expect. We had a momentary stall as did most businesses; however, once real estate was deemed to be an essential service, REALTORS® worked with Buyers and Sellers to ensure safety in the process, and the market picked back up and accelerated past all expectations throughout the remainder of the year.”

The total number of residential and condo units sold throughout 2020 was 18,971, compared with 18,613 in 2019, increasing 2 per cent. Residential property class unit sales went up by 3 per cent, with 14,455 properties exchanging hands last year compared to 14,030 in 2019. Condominium property class sales decreased slightly by 1.5 per cent, with 4,516 units sold in 2020 versus 4,583 in the previous year.

December’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $355,982, an increase of 14.4 per cent from a year ago, while the average sale price of a residential-class property was $603,880, an increase of 20.6 per cent from December 2019. Year-end figures show an average sale price of $582,267 for residential-class properties and $361,337 for condominium units in 2020. These values represent a 20 per cent and 19 percent increase over 2019, respectively.*

“When analyzing the year-end figures, what clearly stood out was that although the number of units sold was only slightly higher than last year, the Total Sales Volume topped a record-breaking $10 billion compared to $8.2 billion at the end of 2019. This is, in effect, a stark illustration of the increase in Ottawa property values over the course of the year. For example, in 2019, 35% of properties purchased were sold at or below $400K, while in 2020, only 16% of homes were. The market is certainly exhibiting a major shift in terms of availability in lower price ranges,” Wright points out.

“At the end of 2020, average prices increased by 19-20% over this time last year. In 2019, we saw a 9% overall increase for both residential and condo properties compared to 3-5% in 2018 and 3-7% in 2017. These substantive increases in property prices from year to year can be attributed to a variety of factors: the inventory shortage triggering economic supply and demand realities, the multiple-offer phenomena, the record-low mortgage rates increasing purchasing power of Buyers, migration of Buyers from larger markets with high returns to spend, and so forth.”

“I believe that Ottawa is just coming into its own as a national capital city. As such, it is resilient and sheltered in a way that other markets are not – with consistent government and tech sector employment that is particularly conducive to working from home as our current circumstances have required. We may have been privileged with lower price thresholds in previous decades, but perhaps the market is now beginning to reflect the real estate property values of a national capital.”

“Going forward, I fully expect Ottawa’s resale market will continue to be robust in 2021. There are no indicators to suggest that this is an overheated market – it is simply very active, insulated, and strong. One that has only been mildly shaken by a world-wide pandemic,” Wright concludes.