2019 – Page 2 – Ottawa Real Estate Board

“Catch 22” Defines the April Resale Market

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,032 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 2,024 in April 2018, an increase of 0.4 per cent. April’s sales included 1,594 in the residential property class, on par from a year ago, and 438 in the condominium property class, an increase of 5.3 per cent from April 2018. The five-year average for April unit sales is 1,825.

“The story hasn’t changed throughout this spring – our market is clearly suffering from low inventory, and we predict these conditions will persist until supply is restored,” states Dwight Delahunt, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board.

“Several factors continue to have an impact in this regard including the lag in new construction coming to market and the reluctance of potential sellers who are facing limited options when they are buying within the same market. Add to this a stress test for buyers, that can limit purchasing capacity in a market where prices are accelerating, and it becomes a “Catch 22” situation for the foreseeable future.”

“Residential supply is down 18%, and condo inventory is down almost 40% from last April. Despite this tight supply, the residential market is holding its own and the increase in unit sales is effectively coming from the condo market which until recently, was in a surplus,” he notes.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in April in the Ottawa area was $488,729, a rise of 7.4 per cent over April 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $307,659, an increase of 14.3 per cent from this month last year. Year to date numbers show a 6.6 per cent and 8.7 per cent increase in average prices for residential and condominiums respectively. *

“An active market with limited supply is inherently going to put an upward pressure on prices,” Delahunt explains. “However, this bodes well for the condo market by which the absorption is allowing for the rebounding and recovery of its price points.”

“Certainly, the stunted supply is likely responsible for the multiple offer situations we are experiencing, but the reality is that while approximately one-third of properties are selling above asking, more than 50% are still selling below the listed price.”

“Ottawa is a stable and affordable market and has been since the 1940s – we are not in a bubble,” Delahunt emphasizes.

The increased $350,000 to $499,999 price range has now become the most active price point in the residential market, accounting for 44 per cent of April’s transactions. Also worth noting, 28.5 per cent of residential sales were in the $500,000 to $749,999 range up from 23-25 per cent previously. The most prevalent price point in the condominium market which had increased to the $225,000-$349,999 price range last month, remains so, accounting for 46 per cent of the units sold.

“The increase in price points are indicative that availability in the lower priced housing stock is just not there and is pushing people up to the higher end of the market. Nevertheless, the fact is, these price points are still well under the Canadian average, and our residents tend to be in comfortable financial situations due to secure employment and a thriving local economy,” Delahunt concludes.

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 778 properties since the beginning of the year.

* The Board cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price and conditions will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

A Slow March into Spring Market for Ottawa Real Estate

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,511 residential properties in March through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,654 in March 2018, a decrease of 8.6 per cent. March’s sales included 1,136 in the residential property class, a drop of 12.4 per cent from a year ago, and 375 in the condominium property class, an increase of 5 per cent from March 2018. The five-year average for March unit sales is 1,402.

“Lack of inventory is responsible for March’s deficiency in residential unit sales,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s President, Dwight Delahunt. “This tightness of supply is manifesting in significant reductions in DOMs (days on market) and properties selling very quickly. Residential DOMs are down 14%, and condo DOMs are down 36% from last year.”

“In some pockets of the city, buyers are facing multiple offer situations, and properties are often selling over list price. These dynamics of low inventory, reduced days on market, and multiple offers are signs of a seller’s market in these areas. While a benefit to those sellers, it’s stressful and time consuming for buyers. The experience and guidance of a REALTOR® is essential in these types of market conditions,” he adds.

“A major factor contributing to the lack of housing stock is the shortage of quality options for those who might list their homes. Move-up sellers feed the market for first-time homebuyers. Another issue which adds to a seller’s reluctance to put their home on the market is the B-20 stress test which affects their purchasing power,” Delahunt asserts.

“In Ottawa, we have a population base that’s increasing year over year with a growth rate of 8.8 percent, which is higher than Ontario (5.7%) and Canada as a whole (5.9%). Immigration and high employment levels are bringing residents to our desirable and affordable city,” he suggests.

Delahunt continues, “With high demand and limited supply, prices will continue to be pushed upwards – it’s a simple and fundamental economic principle. Although we appreciate the recent measures the federal government has taken towards affordable homeownership, all three levels of government need to work together at implementing mechanisms that will also restore the supply side of the market.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in March in the Ottawa area was $480,143, a rise of 7.2 per cent over March 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $290,181, an increase of 5.2 per cent from this month last year.*

The $300,000 to $449,999 price range continued to represent the most active price point in the residential market, accounting for 43 per cent of March’s sales while 1 in 4 residential sales was in the $500,000 to $749,999 range. The most prevalent price point in the condominium market increased to the $225,000-$349,999 price range, accounting for 49 per cent of the units sold.

“The condo units in the entry-level range are near depletion as first-time homebuyers are trying to get into the market at the lowest possible price. Moreover, previous renters may have been pushed into condo ownership with rental vacancy rates in Ottawa at less than 1%. If there were concrete incentives for investors to purchase properties to lease or develop purpose-built rentals – it could certainly stimulate the rental market,” Delahunt concludes.

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 550 properties since the beginning of the year.

Ottawa Real Estate Board on Budget 2019

The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) is pleased the federal government is taking measures towards supporting homeownership for many Canadians in the 2019 budget but suggests there were opportunities missed.

OTTAWA – The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) is pleased the federal government is taking measures towards supporting homeownership for many Canadians in the 2019 budget but suggests there were opportunities missed.

“Some first-time homebuyers will be assisted through the shared-equity mortgage program and the increase of RRSP withdrawals to $35,000,” states Dwight Delahunt, OREB’s 2019 President. “However, we would’ve preferred a measure such as the one we proposed to government to increase the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit from $750 to $2500 as this would not have created another debt to be repaid.”

“While the government has said these measures are to help Millennials specifically, we question whether this cohort actually has this amount invested in RRSPs and whether they will be able to qualify for a shared-equity mortgage program. Many Millennials are facing affordability issues related to their income levels and student debt,” Delahunt asserts.

“We certainly applaud the modernization of the Homebuyer’s Plan to include those going through difficult life-changing circumstances, such as the breakup of marriage/common-law relationships – we have been advocating for this for some time,” he acknowledges.

“Direct measures to address the supply side challenges we are experiencing, particularly in our local Ottawa market, is another issue we would have liked to seen more concrete action on. Although the government has recognized the need to examine this matter further and is launching a challenge to municipalities and creating an expert panel to provide recommendations on the future of housing supply and affordability, we think this matter has already been examined by many experts and the government could have come up with more substantial measures,” Delahunt suggests.

“Our biggest disappointment was that government failed to make any adjustments to the B-20 (stress test) which was an attempt to cool two major markets in the country. We hope the government will continue to monitor the effects of its mortgage policies and be open to adjusting them if necessary. They need to recognize that while mortgage debt is on paper the largest component of household debt, it is the lines of credit and credit cards that can have a major impact due to the much higher carrying costs of these facilities.”

“As reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the economic and social benefits of homeownership are vital,” Delahunt concurs. “Between the $31.7 billion in spin-off spending and the creation of more than 216,000 jobs in 2018, a strong, healthy housing sector is crucial to the Canadian economy.”

Delahunt concludes, “Overall, we are satisfied with the attempts put forth by the federal government to address many issues involved in the housing market and appreciate their recognition of the valuable input provided by REALTORS®, and their Boards and Associations.”

February Buyers Snap Up Limited Inventory

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,005 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 978 in February 2018, an increase of 2.8 per cent. February’s sales included 756 in the residential property class, a rise of 3.8 per cent from a year ago, and 249 in the condominium property class, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from February 2018. The five-year average for February sales is 949.

“February has been a strong month, and with year-to-date unit sales 8% higher in both the condo and residential categories, it is looking very favourable for the spring market,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2019 President, Dwight Delahunt.

“Days on market continue to decline, and although inventory has fallen to its lowest level in many years, we are still managing to satisfy demand even with 900 fewer listings than this time last year,” he adds. “If we had more supply, our unit sales would be even greater.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in February in the Ottawa area was $466,540, an increase of 8.6 per cent over February 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $288,354, an increase of 5.6 per cent from this month last year.*

“The Ottawa market is well ahead of inflation in regards to average prices for both condo and residential properties. We are in a comfortable position and remain one of the most affordable markets in the country,” Delahunt points out.

The $300,000 to $449,999 range continued to represent the most active price point in the residential market, accounting for nearly 44 per cent of February’s sales while 26 per cent of residential sales were in the $500,000 to $750,000 price range. Between $175,000 to $274,999 remained the most prevalent price point in the condominium market, accounting for 48 per cent of the units sold.

“If you are thinking about selling, don’t wait – get a jump on the spring market! Now is the time to have a conversation with your REALTOR® who understands the best way to position your home in the market and has the experience to guide you through its complexities,” Delahunt suggests. “This is the type of market you certainly wouldn’t want to navigate without one.”

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 342 properties since the beginning of the year.

January’s Record-Breaking Home Sales!

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 820 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 708 in January 2018, an increase of 15.8 per cent. January’s sales included 611 in the residential property class, a rise of 14.2 per cent from a year ago, and 209 in the condominium property class, an increase of 20.8 per cent from January 2018. The five-year average for January sales is 683.4.

“January is typically one of the slowest months of the year for local real estate. Yet, in spite of the record cold and snowfall, unit sales are up almost 16%. This is the highest number of January transactions we have experienced in decades,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2019 President, Dwight Delahunt.

“Buyers are extremely motivated, despite the weather, and properties are moving very quickly as days on market continue to decline,” he adds. “If you’re thinking of selling, you don’t have to wait for spring. A REALTOR® is in the best position to assist in this active market where buyers are waiting for the opportunity.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in January in the Ottawa area was $432,829, an increase of 1.5 per cent over January 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $283,990, an increase of 7.7 per cent from this month last year.*

“Even though inventory is at its lowest level in years, Ottawa’s home prices reflect reasonable appreciation. New builds are helping prices remain stable with homebuilders adding enough supply to keep the market equitable. We don’t have the supply constraints of Toronto and Vancouver because we have serviceable lots within a 20-minute drive,” Delahunt points out.

“Similar to the fact that you don’t need to own a BMW to get where you want to go, some of the more expensive neighbourhoods in the city are a lifestyle choice. The fact is there is quality affordable housing available for almost every level of homebuyer in Ottawa.”

The $300,000 to $449,999 range continued to represent the most active price point in the residential market, accounting for nearly 42.5 per cent of January’s sales while 22.7 per cent of sales were in the $500,000 to $750,000 price range. Between $175,000 to $274,999 remained the most prevalent price point in the condominium market, accounting for 54.1 per cent of the units sold.

When asked what he forecasts for the upcoming year, Delahunt speculates, “Based on last month’s sales, I’d say we go with Wiarton Willie’s prediction – it will likely be an early spring for the real estate market as well.”

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 169 properties in January 2019.

Another Stellar Year for Ottawa’s Real Estate Market

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 663 residential properties in December through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 765 in December 2017, a decrease of 13.3 per cent. December’s sales included 471 in the residential property class, a drop of 15.7 per cent from a year ago, and 192 in the condominium property class, a decrease of 6.8 per cent from December 2017.

Year to date activity increased by 2.4 per cent from 2017. The total number of residential and condo units sold throughout all of 2018 was 17,476, compared with 17,065 in 2017. Residential property class sales decreased slightly to 13,418 from 13,478 in 2017 and condominium property class sales were up 13.1 per cent with 4,058 units sold in 2018 versus 3,587 in the previous year.

“For the last decade, we have experienced steady growth in our real estate market from volume to prices; however, the past two years have jumped significantly in activity with a 12.6% increase in unit sales from 2016. Ottawa, and its surrounding area, has excellent employment numbers and has proven to be one of the most affordable larger cities in the country,” proclaims Ralph Shaw, Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2018 President.

“What has come to a head in 2018 is the overall shortage of inventory which is extreme in certain pockets of the city. While this has caused unit sales to slide in the residential market, it has fueled the condominium market which has recovered and carried us through much of 2018. We have been predicting this will bode well for new construction in delayed high-rise projects,” he adds.

“Another significant factor affecting the market in 2018, and first-time homebuyers in particular, is the mortgage stress test – an attempt by the federal government to cool two major markets in the country. It has also unfortunately made move-up buyers less likely to take that step and free up entry-level options, which is an important part of the resale market,” Shaw points out.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in December in the Ottawa area was $453,011, an increase of 4.7 per cent over December 2017. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $278,295, an increase of 9 per cent from this month last year. Year-end figures show an average sale price of $446,661 for residential-class properties in 2018, a 5.1 per cent increase from 2017 and $278,316 for condominium properties, up 3.2 per cent from last year.*

“In 2019, we expect the economic fundamentals of supply and demand to be at play with upward pressure on prices due to limited supply and increasing demand. Buyers do have affordable options in outlying communities if they are willing to commute — or they will simply have to pay more provided they can qualify. New builds and purpose-built rental housing could help ease some of the pressure, particularly if builders are able to provide a variety of quality options allowing for more movement in the market,” Shaw concludes.

The $300,000 to $449,999 range continues to represent the most active price point in the residential market, accounting for nearly 45 per cent of December’s sales while almost one in four sales were in the $500,000 to $750,000 price range. Between $175,000 to $274,999 remained the most prevalent price point in the condominium market, accounting for 55.7 per cent of the units sold. Year-end figures echoed these dominating price points holding 45.6 per cent of the residential market and 49.8 of the condo market respectively.

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 2,713 properties since the beginning of the year down from 2,977 from this time last year.